Discerning Dangerous Expectations & Blind Optimism

“We are going to sell twenty four units this year!” he said.

I am a realist, often confused with a pessimist because I can sometimes bring the cold bucket of water of reality to an unrealistic expectation. I knew for certain there was no way they were going to sell twenty four units.

I knew this because that was one hundred percent of the available market share. I knew for certain, without any doubt whatsoever that there was no way that they would be able to meet this statement.

I warned them in nice tones wrapped with a bow that twenty four units was an unreasonable expectation (I backed it with the realities), they said “Let us worry about the sales”.

A year later I was advising them to let go of forty percent of the build up of people in production. They had they sold one unit instead of twenty four units and there were no additional sales on the horizon.

That too was ignored with them thinking the sales would come, in the face of not even doing the precluding sales activities that would be an indicator towards that end.

It cost them $670,000USD over nine months and still resulted in downsizing of forty percent of the workforce. Totally avoidable loss in the face of reality.

This example is one of many where unreasonable expectations are set. It is applied to voter turnout in a set population, membership within a set demographic, participation by the public, ROI on an investment, what it will cost to get something done, how long it will take to get something done.

There are many possible reasons we do this, one is a natural phenomenon called positive bias which is closely related to unrealistic optimism and prejudice.

Optimism is good, it drives us forward in the face of obstacles. Sometimes blind optimism is good because things get done that wouldn’t be done if we knew all of the bad things that “could happen”. I have said many times that I am glad a certain person wears rose colored glasses (does not see the hurdles or negatives) because they would not do what they do if they did.

I have even been cautious to not sway certain people to see what I see, like inventors and creatives, because they would probably curl up into a ball on the floor screaming “it’ll never work” or “it’ll take too long” or “all that money, for what?” or “we failed fifty times before we were successful” if they saw through my eyes, without balancing it.

That being said, and I recognize the need for a healthy dose of optimism, I believe realities should be learned and scrutinized by someone and taken into account when making decisions. The results of not doing so can be disheartening, devastating and expensive.

The most successful entrepreneurs typically surround themselves with people who can bring perspectives that push them outside of their comfort zone and many times are in opposition to their own perspectives.

This is exceptionally hard for a lot of people because you have to be strong enough in your own self to be open to anything those around you can throw at you and discern it without feeling threatened.

In the example I gave above I gave some pretty good insight but it was not discerned well by the receiver, additionally they did not discern the market well. Their bias, or some would say optimism, was blind…decisions were made pretty much based on feelings alone.

So how do you recognize your own bias? First thing is to recognize that everyone, no matter how open minded they think they are, brings bias to the table. An open minded person brings that bias to the table.

Our subconscious can infuse that into our decision making without our wanting it to if we are not paying attention. So be aware, or mindful in today’s jargon, of your biases.

Start looking at what it is that drives your decision making, look for your blind spots and be brutally honest with yourself. Here are some clues to what your biases are:

• what do you hate or dislike? what makes you angry, sad, anxious, annoyed, fearful?
• what do you love or like? what makes you happy, joyous, comforted, secure?
• what are your expectations for a certain situation? i.e. so many sales, so many members, so much ROI, my partner’s reaction, my child’s accomplishments (is bias playing a role?)
• where do you think you get your value? ie. doing a good job, looking good, winning at sports, others appreciation, yourself, God. Hint: really look at this one.
• what do you think about most? Where your thoughts lay, your actions generally follow.

Knowledge of your own biases and how they effect your decision making will help to recognize when a decision is being influenced by bias or feelings. I’m not going to imply that as good or bad, just have awareness so that you can make a more balanced decision.

The other aspect of making balanced decisions is having hard data Some data points to consider:

• historically how have you or your team done in a similar scenario? It’s a data point, not a crystal ball, you will need to discern the likelihood of the outcome being different or the same. This is a probability data point.
• historically how have other teams done in a similar scenario? If you look at a whole industry or organization and the history of what they have done flies in the face of what you think you will do, examine it more closely. For example, an industry specific organization continues to put effort into its expectation of 100% recruitment of that industry as members, it could be considered an unrealistic expectation if there are no differentiating factors that could lead to an expectation of 100% membership. Another probability data point.
• is it possible? is it plausible? is it probable? When you answer, what are you basing the probabilities on? Hint: Usually somewhere in the middle is the answer.
• what is the worst case scenario?
• what is the best case scenario?

Take a reasonable amount of time to look at these things and it will help to alleviate pie in the sky thinking and set reasonable expectations no matter the end goal.

I realize this article may be considered counter to disruptive thinking and change, however it is my personal belief that it is critical to have radical innovative thinking (like Steve Jobs and many other great innovators) in order for amazing things to happen, however, I also believe that this can be done in a way to mitigate some of the risk and waste as well as boost success rates…but that could just be my bias talking. 😉